As discussed in the article, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $95,846, struggling to maintain levels above $97,000. There are concerns about the negative impact of U.S. employment data on risk markets, as well as the potential sale of billions in BTC tied to the Silkroad case, which is adding to the tension among traders.
In terms of predictions for Bitcoin in January, although BTC has moved away from a low of $90,000, it has not yet breached the critical $97,000 level. Recent data on U.S. Producer Inflation did not meet expectations for a downturn, but it did show an increase from the previous month. Additionally, strong employment figures released recently add complexity to the situation.
The Federal Reserve has two primary functions: job creation and maintaining price stability. After delaying interest rate cuts to combat inflation, the Fed is now facing the repercussions on the employment front. With robust job data and persistent inflation, no interest rate cuts are expected in upcoming meetings through September.
When it comes to Bitcoin’s price forecast in January, if we do not see a significant drop in the upcoming inflation report, the macroeconomic landscape may not provide support. The focus then turns to January 20, when Trump is set to take office. If he swiftly announces policies that ease pressure on cryptocurrencies, such as facilitating banking relationships with crypto firms, it could lead to rapid price increases. Additionally, the appointment of a new SEC chair without prolonged Senate approval may also support the anticipated rally this month.
Another crucial factor is the potential sale of Silkroad BTCs before Trump assumes office. If the Biden administration goes ahead with these sales, it will increase anxieties among traders. However, if no sales occur by Friday evening, a relief rally could follow over the weekend, despite some lingering possibilities of sell-offs.
BTC is currently supported at $95,700, with the potential for a push above $97,000 if the closing remains above this level. However, if it falls back to $92,180, it could lead to a deeper low at $87,500.
It is worth noting that prices remain remarkably close to the all-time high, with 28 days having passed since then. If a bull market persists, a return to six-figure prices is expected soon, with $102,500 becoming a key support level for a new all-time high.
