The CEO of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, a seasoned technical analyst with over four decades of experience, recently expressed caution regarding the upward trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC). Brandt suggested that Bitcoin may have already reached its peak during the last bull market, citing its recent record high of $73,750 as a potential turning point.
In a recent analysis shared with CoinDesk, Brandt outlined the possibility that Bitcoin’s upward movement has reached its pinnacle and that the bull market may be coming to an end. This perspective contradicts his previous prediction in February, where he anticipated that the rise that began from the lows of the bear market in November 2022 could potentially continue until September 2025, with prices potentially reaching as high as $200,000.
Brandt’s current projection for Bitcoin is based on the statistical concept of “exponential decay,” which describes the process of consistently reducing a quantity by a certain percentage over a specific period. He noted that historically, Bitcoin tends to operate within approximately four-year cycles of bull and bear markets, often tied to block reward halvings. Each subsequent bull cycle tends to exhibit about 80% less strength in terms of price growth compared to the previous one.
Drawing on historical data, Brandt pointed out that if this 80% decline holds true statistically, Bitcoin’s recent record high of $73,835 on March 14, 2024, aligns with historical patterns of exponential decline. This analysis also takes into account the observed diminishing returns in successive bull markets.
Brandt’s analysis also considers Bitcoin’s past performance, including its surge to record levels above $73,000 in March. This significant rise occurred from the lowest point of the bear market at $15,473 in November 2022, following the collapse and bankruptcy of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX.
Despite insights from the exponential decay theory, Brandt emphasized that past data does not guarantee future results, particularly since Bitcoin’s historical upward trends have been influenced by four-year block reward halvings. Notably, the most recent block reward halving took place on April 20, 2024, reducing the reward per mined block from 6.25 to 3.12 BTC.
Brandt further stated that there is a general consensus in the cryptocurrency market that the ongoing consolidation between $60,000 and $70,000 could potentially lead to an upward movement. The “Pre/Post Block Reward Halving” cycle structure may result in a potential peak ranging from $140,000 to $160,000 by late summer or early autumn 2025, and this thesis continues to be a significant driving force for Bitcoin ownership.
However, the analyst remains vigilant about the exponential decay theory and noted that more evidence is needed to determine whether this decay will impact the upward trend that began in November 2022. At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency was trading at $62,300, representing a 1.5% decrease over the past 24 hours.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and, therefore, risk, and should conduct their own research.
