Threshold Against Gold as a Test of Independence
According to Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief commodity strategist Mike McGlone, Bitcoin 
$118,247 must maintain its position above the 2021 peak against gold to prove itself as an independent asset and not just another speculative trade. McGlone suggests that this threshold currently resides at approximately 35 ounces of gold. Falling below this level would signify weakness. On August 14, the BTC/XAU pair reached as high as 36.9 ounces, though it has partially retraced. In mid-April, the lowest level of the year was recorded at 24.7 ounces.
Independence Test
McGlone views this threshold as an independence test for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin can sustain itself above this benchmark, it can chart its own cycle; otherwise, it will remain overshadowed by speculators. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin is still trailing gold by 0.41%. Although this seems a minor gap, it emerges as a detail undermining Bitcoin’s claim to independence. The peak of 36.9 ounces on August 14 represents a brief respite above the threshold, but the vulnerable region tested at 24.7 ounces in mid-April is still fresh in memory.
McGlone’s Cautious Tone
McGlone is known for his cautious tone regarding Bitcoin over the years. Previously, he made headlines by predicting that the price of the largest cryptocurrency might plummet to $10,000. Currently, he argues that without establishing permanence above the 35-ounce threshold, Bitcoin’s narrative of independence will not be convincing.
US Bonds as the Next Big Trade?
The strategist points to US Treasury bonds as a potential new significant trade. He notes that bond yields in China have eased toward 1.75%, arguing that this comparison could make US Treasury bonds an attractive target, given their more predictable and measurable risk/return balance. McGlone also does not hide his personal preference; for now, he opts for gold over “digital gold.”
Contradicting Views
On the other hand, there are contradicting views regarding McGlone’s stance. Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity previously predicted that Bitcoin could surpass gold in the second half of the year. However, as the calendar progresses, Timmer’s anticipated scenario has yet to manifest.
