Crypto Bull Market Unveiled
Two months ago, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared the end of the crypto bull run, basing his statement on on-chain metrics, which play a vital role in the cryptocurrency market analysis. However, circumstances have changed, and Ju explains the factors contributing to his misjudgment and shares his perspective on the current market rally. Here are the intriguing details revealed by the acclaimed commentator in the crypto domain.
Crypto Bull Market Unveiled
Ju previously analyzed numerous metrics, suggesting that historical data indicated the peak of the bull market. While he had been correct at that time, the changing dynamics meant that the metrics no longer function effectively. His primary miscalculation stemmed from this shift in the landscape, which he candidly acknowledges.
“I claimed two months ago that the bull cycle was over, but I was mistaken. #Bitcoin’s selling pressure is dissipating, and substantial inflows are occurring through ETFs. In the past, Bitcoin’s market was straightforward, dominated by old whales, miners, and new retail investors, who were essentially transferring money among themselves. Predicting the cycle’s peak was relatively easy when individual liquidity dried up, and old whales began withdrawing funds. It was akin to a game of musical chairs: everyone tried to cash out simultaneously, leaving those unable to do so holding assets,” he explained.
Today, the situation differs significantly; thus, historical data might not hold as much weight due to the altered market structure. In the new era, a market upswing might span more than just a few months, indicating we are in a transitional phase.
“The Bitcoin market has become far more diverse. ETFs, MicroStrategy (MSTR), institutional investors, and even government entities are contemplating buying and selling Bitcoin. Previously, profit-taking cycles were triggered by whales cashing out at the peak, leading to a chain reaction of sell-offs and price drops. However, it seems time to discard this cycle theory. New liquidity sources and volumes are becoming more ambiguous, indicating a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi. Focusing on new liquidity influxes from institutions and ETFs is critical, as this new flow may outweigh even major whale sell-offs.
Honestly, I believe the market feels stagnant as it absorbs this new liquidity. Most indicators hover near their thresholds, not clearly suggesting a bullish or bearish market. Despite this, recent price movements have been extremely bullish. Being wrong doesn’t imply that on-chain data is useless. On-chain analysts can have differing views, and at the time, many, including @mignoletkr, disagreed with me. Data is mere information, and perspectives evolve. I apologize for the incorrect prediction. I will strive to provide higher quality analyses in the future. Thank you.”
Cryptocurrencies Set to Rise
Individual investor interest is one key metric expected to remain unchanged. This interest can be easily tracked through Google trend data, indicating sustained institutional demand that will rise with expected regulatory clarifications. Many companies plan to launch cryptocurrency services this year, and banks worldwide, including those in Turkey, have already begun to do so. The number of such services is poised to increase, as highlighted by a recent survey from Yapı Kredi Bank expressing interest in setting up an exchange.
Lark Davis shared the Google search trend graph for Bitcoin to demonstrate that the crypto rise will gain momentum with increased demand. Presently, retail interest remains low, as evidenced by the lack of discussions even among laypersons, indicating a potential surge in individual investor participation. The bottoming trend signals an impending upward move.
