At the TOKEN2049 conference held in Dubai, renowned macroeconomics expert Raoul Pal unveiled his new theory known as the “Banana Zone.”
According to Pal, the confluence of increased global liquidity and investor indecision is setting the stage for what could be the most explosive phase in market history. Advising individuals to “ignore fear and follow the money,” he anticipates a historic bull run in the cryptocurrency market on the horizon.
How Liquidity Fuels Bitcoin Growth
Pal asserts that 90% of asset prices are driven by liquidity flows, using Bitcoin 
$94,303 and the Nasdaq index as examples. An expanding money supply boosts both stocks and cryptocurrencies, while inflation coupled with currency depreciation creates an invisible “wealth tax” of 11% annually. He emphasized that investors should aim for returns exceeding this rate to prevent erosion of their wealth.
Skyrocketing housing prices are prompting the millennial generation to seek alternative investment options. Pal explains, “Young people are willing to accept volatility because traditional ways don’t allow them to grow their wealth.” In fact, Bitcoin’s average annual return of 130% since 2012, and a 48.4% growth in the past 12 months, substantiate this viewpoint.
Pal’s “Banana Zone” Strategy
In Pal’s assessment, Bitcoin has entered the “Mania Phase,” the third stage of its market cycle. He predicts that prices could soar to the $250,000 – $450,000 range, while altcoins may experience up to 20-fold increases. Comparing the current environment with the 2020 and 2009 cycles, Pal highlights that institutional money has not fully entered the scene yet.
Advising investors to “stay calm and avoid leverage and scams,” Pal suggests prioritizing the secure storage of assets and closely monitoring liquidity trends. According to him, those who regularly track macroeconomic indicators will be the quickest to spot market shifts.
