New York-based data scientist Alex McCullough has shown that the prediction platform Polymarket achieves an impressive accuracy rate of nearly 90% for specific events.
By analyzing past data from the platform, McCullough examined the differences between short-term and long-term markets. The research highlighted the platform’s remarkable performance, especially in predictions related to sports and political events, indicating that long-term predictions tend to have higher accuracy rates.
Key Data in Polymarket Predictions
McCullough conducted a comprehensive analysis by reviewing historical predictions on Polymarket. According to the analysis, some markets see predictions exceed 90%, while others fall below 10%. These extremes were excluded from the research to achieve healthier results. McCullough noted that there is a slight tendency for exaggeration in short-term markets.
According to McCullough, long-term predictions feature a broader probability distribution, leading to generally more uncertain outcomes. This necessitates more careful predictions, resulting in higher accuracy rates. In the short term, market participants tend to react abruptly, causing predictions to fluctuate over time.
Data also shows that as time progresses and events gain clarity, the accuracy of predictions improves. McCullough stated that the probability forecasts in the market adapt better to evolving events over time, highlighting that Polymarket offers predictions based not only on immediate insights but also on data-driven forecasts.
Notable Performance in Sports and Politics
The research revealed the high predictive accuracy in sports markets. Polymarket’s predictions for major organizations like the NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League have proven to be highly accurate over time. These major sporting events witness high-volume transactions on the platform, with users pricing developments in real-time. Consequently, the accuracy of predictions increases in line with event developments.
Additionally, striking data was obtained in political markets. In the leadership contest of Canada’s Liberal Party, Polymarket’s data provided insights beyond traditional polls. The differences between political rivals became apparent earlier and more clearly on the platform, indicating its role as an alternative measurement tool for political developments.
Similar levels of accuracy were observed in historical election processes. In long-term political predictions, such as the winning probabilities of candidates, markets often pointed in the right direction. This suggests that Polymarket can offer healthier predictions, especially in environments characterized by high uncertainty.
